Recently, the United States and Europe have been arguing about whether and how to provide MIG -29 fighters to Ukraine. First, at the request of the United States, Poland expressed its willingness to send its MiG -29 to the Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany, which was dominated by the United States. The United States quickly stopped it, saying that Poland’s idea was too risky because the United States and NATO tried to avoid a direct conflict with Russia.
▲ The first MIG -29 prototype "Blue -01" parked in the Central Air Force Museum of Monino Airport.
Obviously, the United States wants to be a "non-stick pot."When MiG -29 takes off from its own base and goes to Ukraine, there is bound to be the risk of retaliation by Russia, so it simply doesn’t take this "dirty job". It is not difficult to see that in the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has been pushing European countries ahead, letting them block bullets and be cannon fodder.
Although the United States led European countries to launch verbal attacks and unprecedented sanctions against Russia, it did not consider the safety and interests of European countries.In this "sanction carnival" which was kidnapped by western politics correctly, the interests of Europe were completely betrayed, but many European friends were still ignorant and impassioned.As people who eat melons, I am anxious for them.
In this crisis, Europe’s contribution has just begun.
First, the European security architecture has collapsed.The geopolitical map of Europe is being rewritten, and the security framework that Europe has been striving for for for 30 years after the Cold War no longer exists. Instead of bringing more security to Europe, NATO has constantly provoked and squeezed Russia into a situation of Jedi counterattack.
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has violated the promise of "never moving an inch eastward" and pushed to the Russian border through five rounds of eastward expansion. Putin said that if ballistic missiles are deployed in Ukraine, they can reach Moscow in seven or eight minutes, and hypersonic missiles only need four or five minutes. This is equivalent to putting the muzzle on someone else’s doorstep. Can Russia bear it? Can you live if you endure it? The answer is no.However, the opening is easy to end. After the United States angered Russia, it put up a "war-free card" and left the rest of the mess to Europe.
Second, the economic losses in Europe will gradually emerge.The United States has imposed crazy sanctions on Russia from Europe, from space to aviation, from chips to oil and gas, from financial chain to industrial chain, trying to completely cut off the economic ties between Europe and Russia. In reality, the EU is the largest foreign investor in Russia. In 2019, European direct investment in the Russian market has exceeded 311 billion US dollars. In 2020, the trade volume between Europe and Russia exceeded US$ 174.3 billion. These close and active economic, trade and financial ties have been cut off. How many European enterprises will suffer losses and how many European workers will be forced to lose their jobs?
Russia and Europe closed their airspace to each other because of sanctions, and flights from European countries to East Asia had to go around Russia, and the cost increased sharply. The United States has a superior geographical position, but its airlines are little affected. In addition, there are 2 million Ukrainian refugees flooding into Europe, which will also bring a heavy economic burden to European countries and even cause a lot of social problems.We can see that the European people welcome the refugees very touching, but the enthusiasm is temporary after all, and a series of problems caused by refugees have been learned from the past.
▲ In October 2015, a large number of refugees from Middle Eastern countries gathered at the border between Slovenia and Austria.
Third, Europe’s energy supply is precarious.Affected by the situation in Ukraine, the data of London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that the European natural gas futures price rose to nearly $3,900/thousand cubic meters on March 7, which was more than ten times the price last spring, while 55% of Germany’s natural gas and 40% of its oil and coal were imported from Russia. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Scholz still insists on exempting European sanctions on Russian energy under the pressure of the United States and Britain.
However, on March 8, US President Biden announced a ban on the import of Russian oil and natural gas. As soon as the voice fell, US Deputy Secretary of State Newland said at a congressional hearing that the "Nord Stream 2" project was dead. This Russian-European joint investment of nearly 10 billion euros in natural gas pipeline was thus lightly sentenced to death by the United States.
▲ On March 8, 2022, Biden announced that he would impose an energy embargo on Russia. On the same day, the EU also announced that it would seek to significantly reduce oil and gas imports from Russia. This sanction will push Europe’s energy supply into trouble. (Comic | Liu Rui)
European media believe that the Ukrainian crisis will seriously impact European energy supply, and many people will face the choice of starving or freezing this winter and next spring.People of insight in German political circles have publicly stated that "some people say that we are ready to pay a high economic price to get rid of our energy dependence on Russia, but it is the people who pay the price".
Sanctions against Russia, the whip also hit Europe.
Europe is a mess, and everything goes well in America.The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made the United States harvest a lot, and many things that we wanted to do before but failed to do have been accomplished: Russia will be difficult to turn over morally or in terms of national strength in the short term, Europe will be more "United", NATO will be more "centripetal", Nord Stream 2 will be terminated, the defense budgets of Germany and many European countries will exceed 2% of GDP, and American oil, natural gas and arms can be sold in the European market.
Looking back at the routine of the United States in this crisis, it is roughly fanning the flames before the war breaks out, fearing that the world will not be chaotic, and sending information and weapons after the war breaks out, but insisting that it will never send troops.The wishful thinking of the United States is to let Ukraine bleed, let Europe pay the bill, and let Russia collapse. This is a typical routine of hegemonic logic and the latest application of offshore balance.
Does the United States really care about the interests and feelings of Europe? Friends in Europe can recall two things from last year.Last March, at the instigation of the United States, the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions on China on the trumped-up "genocide" in Xinjiang, which was resolutely countered by China, and China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which was reached through long and arduous negotiations, was shelved by the European Parliament. Is this in the interest of Europe? No. This is only in the interest of the United States.
In September last year, the United States suddenly announced that it would form a trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) with Britain and Australia and would provide nuclear submarines to Australia, openly tearing up the submarine procurement agreement reached between Australia and France and "stabbing" NATO brothers behind their backs. Is this in France’s interest? No. This is only in the interest of the United States.
▲ In September 2021, Australia abandoned the submarine project with France since 2016, announced the establishment of a new partnership with the United States, and gave France a hard "backstab".
In recent years, French President Macron and other European leaders have loudly called for strengthening the EU’s "strategic autonomy". This is far-sighted, but the key is to realize ideological autonomy independent of the United States.Falling into the American discourse system has made it difficult for many Europeans to see the reality clearly, let alone form an independent strategy. At present, European public opinion is furious, and rational thinking has long been kidnapped by emotion and morality.
▲ On February 26th, 2022, the outer wall of the Russian Consulate General in Strasbourg was painted with Nazi symbols.
Over the years, the American propaganda machine has continued to "demonize" Russia.In the eyes of the West, Russia is a loser who lost the Cold War and a "second-class citizen" who once wanted to integrate into the West and was rejected. When Biden delivered his State of the Union address, he declared that it was a big tone and a deep prejudice to make Putin an "untouchable" on the world stage.
As a result, Russia has been portrayed as a demon hiding in the dark to spy on the West and wait for revenge.All its actions to defend legitimate security interests are regarded as the counterattack of darkness against light and the attack of authoritarian regime on the free world, which naturally deserves worldwide crusade and sanctions.On the other hand, the United States and NATO themselves can hold high the banner of democracy, human rights and freedom and bombard Iraq and turn Syria into rubble.
▲ In March 2019, the United States launched an air strike on the town of Bagzi in Syria, killing more than 60 women and children.
What about independent thinking and independent judgment of European media? In the information society, if the media have political prejudice and only follow the script obtained from a certain aspect, it will form a wrong public opinion. In the west where votes are paramount, wrong public opinion will form strong public pressure and then kidnap public decision-making. People’s anger is one-sided, rational voices are buried, and government decisions are held hostage. In the long run, there will be no problems.
▲ On March 7, 2022, Claire Daley, a member of the European Parliament, questioned at the plenary session of the European Parliament that thousands of Afghans left their homes and sought refuge, but no one mentioned it. Is it just because the invaders are the United States?
However, the narrative of American freedom and democracy has come to an end.Under this crisis, the United States and the West have indiscriminately banned Russia in political, economic, cultural, sports, literature and art, education and other fields, and the sanctions against Russia have reached a "new height": permanent neutrality is no longer neutral; The so-called art and sports have no borders, and politics is everywhere; Private property is sacred and inviolable, and can be deprived at will. What about the agreed spirit of contract? The hypocritical rhetoric that the United States has built for so many years has been completely "faced" by itself.
In fact, the United States has never given up its own interests because of ideology, because it is only the shell of interests; Europe, on the other hand, is often "not free or give me death", and constantly performs the drama of "losing money and making money" in geopolitics.It should be noted that when people play cards, they will inevitably become cannon fodder.Ukraine is one card, and Europe is another.America is the real super player, smash one, and there is another. As long as the east and west ends of Eurasia never stop, the hegemony will sit firmly. We would like to invite European friends to think together. Is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict a "self-fulfilling prophecy" or an elaborate strategy?
Man learns truth at the expense of suffering. What can we learn from the Ukrainian crisis?
The serious lack of mutual trust among major powers has led to the return of geopolitical conflicts.There is no mutual respect and basic trust between big countries, and in the end it is a war against each other.China’s philosophy says "extremes meet", and the result of one-sided pursuit of maximizing security interests is the collapse of the security system, which makes everyone unsafe.
Since the end of last year, Russia has also tried to solve its core security concerns through negotiations with the United States, and the response is only arrogance and perfunctory, leaving Russia with only "dealing with the jungle law with the jungle law." Two days ago, Putin quoted Catherine II as saying, "As long as I have enough life, I will defend my motherland with words, pens and swords."
When the security interests and national dignity of a big country are trampled on wantonly, it is the moment when war comes.Some people exclaim that traditional geopolitics has returned, and great power confrontation has returned. Who is the initiator? Can only blame the cold war mentality, hegemonic countries.
Pushing Russia into a desperate situation is a historic failure of the West and a tragedy of Europe.The United States can still watch the fire from the other side of the bank, and even provide MIG -29 fighters to Ukraine with fake hands in Poland. And where can Europe hide? There is only so much room in Europe. After the war, the distance between Berlin and Moscow is still 1600 kilometers. European countries will still live on the same continent as Russia and re-explore the possibility of building a security architecture. And why can’t all this start before the conflict breaks out?
▲ In the eyes of the United States, Europe is just a "marionette" manipulated to safeguard its hegemony and interests. (Comic | Liu Rui)
Maintaining hegemonic status is the core of American foreign policy, and we can do whatever it takes to achieve this goal.Europe is an important pole in the multi-polarization of the world and an important force to promote the democratization of international relations. It should seek and adhere to strategic autonomy in all fields and not act as cannon fodder for the United States to safeguard its hegemonic "cause".
